International Horizon Scanning and Learning Summary Calendar 2022/23

This International Horizon Scanning and Learning Summary Calendar is the third in the series, following the Summary Calendars from 2020/21 and 2021/22. This Summary Calendar has collated, synthesised, and presented a clear and concise synopsis of the five International Horizon Scanning Reports over the past year, since April 2022 through to March 2023. In addition, the two summary reports (published in 2022) are included. The International Horizon Scanning and Learning work stream has proved to showcase informative and impactful research whilst collating data from other countries and has provided guidance, recommendations, and useful insights regarding the evolving nature and uncertainties of emerging public health topics, which has sought to improve and inform such actions and approaches in Wales.

The summary aims to inform a succinct overview of comprehensive, coherent, inclusive and evidence-informed policy action, which has supported and continues to support the national strategies towards a healthier, more equal, resilient, prosperous and globally responsible Wales. This calendar includes key messages and key recommendations from the high level synthesis pages of each International Horizon Scanning report.

Themes include:
• Intermediate care
• The cost of living crisis
• COVID-proofing the educational environment: 4-18 years
• Early childhood education and care
• Communication campaigns for vaccine acceptance
• The impact of COVID-19 on mental health and increasing vulnerability
• The impact of COVID-19 on increasing the health gap and vulnerability

Authors: Mariana Dyakova, Emily Clark+ 14 more
, Andrew Cotter-Roberts, Abigail Malcolm (née Instone), Golibe Ezenwugo, Leah Silva, Anna Stielke, Sara Cooklin-Urbano, Lauren Couzens (née Ellis), James Allen, Aimee Challenger, Claire Beynon, Mark Bellis, Mischa Van Eimeren, Angie Kirby, Benjamin Bainham

IHCC Progress Report 2018-22

This report outlines the International Health Coordination Centre’s (IHCC) progress in driving and enabling implementation of the Charter for International Health Partnerships in Wales (the Charter) across the NHS over the last four years. It also provides examples of international health partnership working from across the Health Boards and NHS Trusts. The report highlights the IHCC’s plans and aspirations for the future, in supporting a healthier, more equal, globally responsible, resilient and prosperous NHS in Wales.

The report highlights the IHCC’s role, achievements, ways of working, collaborative structures and activities; and outlines the evolution of the IHCC in relation to global, UK, national and local developments. These include challenges and opportunities such as the UK withdrawal from the European Union (‘Brexit’), the COVID-19 pandemic and the ‘cost of living’ crisis. It demonstrates the tools used to enable shared learning, facilitate cross-NHS and cross-sector synergies, and maximise benefits to the health and well-being of the people in Wales and beyond.

Authors: Liz Green, Mariana Dyakova+ 2 more
, Laura Holt, Kit Chalmers

International Horizon Scanning and Learning Report: Communication campaigns for vaccine acceptance

The International Horizon Scanning and Learning reports were initiated as part of the COVID-19 public health response, to support dynamic response and recovery measures and planning in Wales. In spring 2022, the scope of the reports was expanded to cover priority public health topics, including in the areas of health improvement and promotion, health protection, and health care public health.

In focus: Communication campaigns for vaccine acceptance

Authors: Abigail Malcolm (née Instone), Leah Silva+ 6 more
, Lauren Couzens (née Ellis), Golibe Ezenwugo, Sara Cooklin-Urbano, Aimee Challenger, Emily Clark, Mariana Dyakova

International Horizon Scanning and Learning Report: Early childhood education and care

The International Horizon Scanning and Learning reports were initiated as part of the COVID-19 public health response, to support dynamic response and recovery measures and planning in Wales. In spring 2022, the scope of the reports was expanded to cover priority public health topics, including in the areas of health improvement and promotion, health protection, and health care public health.

In focus: Early childhood education and care

Authors: Abigail Malcolm (née Instone), Leah Silva+ 5 more
, Lauren Couzens (née Ellis), Golibe Ezenwugo, Sara Cooklin-Urbano, Emily Clark, Mariana Dyakova

Understanding health inequalities in Wales using the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method

Throughout Wales and the world, health inequality remains a problem that is interconnected with a wider and complex social, economic and environmental dynamic. Subsequently, action to tackle inequality in health needs to take place at a structural level, acknowledging the constraints affecting an individual’s (or community’s) capability and opportunity to enable change. While the ‘social determinants of health’ is an established concept, fully understanding the composition of the health gap is dependent on capturing the relative contributions of a myriad of social, economic and environmental factors within a quantitative analysis. The decomposition analysis sought to explain the differences in the prevalence of these outcomes in groups stratified by their ability to save at least £10 a month, whether they were in material deprivation, and the presence of a limiting long-standing illness, disability of infirmity. The analysis not only quantified the significant health gaps that existed in the years leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it has also shown what determinants of health were most influential. Understanding the factors most closely associated with disparities in health is key in identifying policy levers to reduce health inequalities and improve the health and well-being across populations.

Authors: James Allen, Andrew Cotter-Roberts+ 4 more
, Oliver Darlington, Mariana Dyakova, Rebecca Masters, Luke Munford

Social Return on Investment (SROI) of mental health related interventions—A scoping review

Social Return on Investment (SROI) is a methodological approach which incorporates all three aspects for evaluating interventions. Mental health problems are one of the leading causes of ill health and disability worldwide. This study aims to map existing evidence on the social value of mental health interventions that uses the SROI methodology. This scoping review is a first of its kind to focus on SROI of mental health interventions, finding a good number of SROI studies that show a positive return on investment of the identified interventions. This review illustrates that SROI could be a useful tool and source of evidence to help inform policy and funding decisions for investment in mental health and wellbeing, as it accounts for the wider social, economic, and environmental benefits of public health interventions.

Authors: Rajendra Kadel, Anna Stielke+ 3 more
, Kathryn Ashton, Rebecca Masters, Mariana Dyakova

Toward an economy of wellbeing: The economic impact of the Welsh healthcare sector

Population health and wellbeing is both a result, as well as a driver, of economic development and prosperity on global, European, national and sub-national (local) levels. In this paper, the economic importance of the healthcare sector to the Welsh economy is explored. We use a large number of data sources for the UK and Welsh economy to derive an economic model for 2017. We estimate output, income, employment, value-added, and import multipliers of the healthcare sector. Results suggest that the healthcare sector has an above average contribution in four explored economic aspects of the Welsh economy (output, income, employment, value-added), according to its impact on the surrounding economic ecosystem.

Authors: Timotej Jagrič, Christine Brown+ 6 more
, Dušan Fister, Oliver Darlington, Kathryn Ashton, Mariana Dyakova, Mark Bellis, Vita Jagrič

International Horizon Scanning and Learning Report: COVID-proofing the educational environment: 4-18 years

The International Horizon Scanning and Learning reports were initiated as part of the COVID-19 public health response, to support dynamic response and recovery measures and planning in Wales. In spring 2022, the scope of the reports was expanded to cover priority public health topics, including in the areas of health improvement and promotion, health protection, and health care public health.

In focus: COVID-proofing the educational environment: 4-18 years

Authors: Mark Bellis, Mariana Dyakova+ 5 more
, Anna Stielke, Abigail Malcolm (née Instone), James Allen, Lauren Couzens (née Ellis), Emily Clark

Cost of health inequality to the NHS in Wales

There are wide inequalities in health and healthcare use between people living in more deprived neighborhoods and those living in less deprived neighborhoods in Wales. Tackling health inequality through a combination of health promotion and early intervention policies targeted toward deprived communities could yield substantial improvement in health and wellbeing, as well as savings for the Welsh NHS.

Authors: Rajendra Kadel, James Allen+ 8 more
, Oliver Darlington, Rebecca Masters, Brendan Collins, Joanna M. Charles, Miqdad Asaria, Mariana Dyakova, Mark Bellis, Richard Cookson

International Horizon Scanning and Learning Report: The Cost of Living Crisis

The International Horizon Scanning and Learning reports were initiated as part of the COVID-19 public health response, to support dynamic response and recovery measures and planning in Wales. In spring 2022, the scope of the reports was expanded to cover priority public health topics, including in the areas of health improvement and promotion, health protection, and health care public health.
In focus: Cost of living crisis

Authors: Emily Clark, Anna Stielke+ 3 more
, Abigail Malcolm (née Instone), James Allen, Mariana Dyakova

Exploring the social value of Public Health Institutes: An international scoping survey and expert interviews

Making the case for investing in preventative public health by illustrating not only the health impact but the social, economic and environmental value of Public Health Institutes is imperative. This is captured by the concept of Social Value, which when measured, demonstrates the combined intersectoral value of public health. This research can inform future work to understand how to measure the holistic social value of Public Health Institutes, in order to strengthen institutional capacity and impact, as well as to achieve a more equitable society, and a more sustainable health system and economy, making the case for investing in public health, as we recover from COVID-19.

Authors: Kathryn Ashton, Liz Green+ 4 more
, Timo Clemens, Lee Parry-Williams, Mariana Dyakova, Mark Bellis

Influencing the Health Gap in Wales: Decomposition analysis discussion paper

The aim of this discussion paper is to help inform further policy action and potential solutions in order to reduce the health gap in Wales and beyond.
It provides a snapshot of the health inequalities experienced by different population groups in the years leading up to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, applying an innovative statistical methodology, a ‘Decomposition analysis’.

The paper attempts to quantify the health gap in Wales, as well as to provide a better understanding of its main drivers across the five essential conditions for healthy prosperous lives for all, using a novel World Health Organization framework. It uses three measures of self-reported health: 1) the prevalence of fair/poor health; 2) the prevalence of low mental well-being; and 3) the prevalence of low life satisfaction, comparing these between:
• Those who are able to make a saving of at least £10/month and those who are not;
• Those who report being in material deprivation and those who do not; and
• Those who report a limiting longstanding illness, disability or infirmity and those who do not.

The analysis has generated an insight into the drivers of health inequities, identifying those which contribute the most, namely ‘Social and Human Capital’ and ‘Income Security and Social Protection’; while ‘Health Services’ has accounted the least. However, systematic differences are able to explain less than half (<50%) of the health gaps for the majority of the health outcomes, based on the statistical models.

The paper highlights the need for a basket of policy and investment decisions, prioritising the key drivers of health inequity, in consensus across sectors. Further exploration and engagement with experts, stakeholders, relevant groups and communities is essential to improve understanding of the health equity gap and its drivers.

It hopes to inform the following national and international stakeholders:
• Public health professionals
• Public policy makers and budget holders on national and local levels
• Statisticians, health scientists and data analysts
• All those who have a role in influencing the health equity gap in Wales and further afield

Authors: James Allen, Mariana Dyakova+ 4 more
, Andrew Cotter-Roberts, Oliver Darlington, Rebecca Masters, Mark Bellis